Will Sarah Palin drop out?

Rumors are flying that John McCain’s choice for Vice President, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, will ask to be excused for personal and family reasons. The rumors actually make sense, and if true, could have a major effect on the upcoming campaign.

Barack Obama has made it clear that he and his campaigners will not make the pregnancy of Palin’s 17-year old daughter an issue. He stated that candidates families are “off limits” – especially their children. He has already stated that he will not abide any attacks on his wife or daughters and that anyone on his stafff that attacks Palin’s family will be fired. He also pointed out that he was the son of an 18-year old girl.

OK, so Obama has made his position very clear. However, Palin and McCain face even more formidable foes: The Mass Media and the Christian Right – the very groups they had hoped her selection would appeal to the most.

Sarah Palin was originally baptized as a Roman Catholic, but now identifies herself as a “Protestant” and is known to belong to a Pentecostal church. She is Pro-Life, Pro Gun, and supports the teaching of Creationism in public schools. She feels that “Global Warming” is not caused by human activity or the burning of fossil fuels.

The Media

Let’s face it – Sarah Palin is ”eye candy” for celebrity hounds, papparazzi, and supermarket magazine racks. She is very attractive, has a beautiful smile and speaks well. In spite of the fact that she is the mother of five children and is 44 years old, she obviously takes good care of herself. Her education, training, and experience as a TV reporter has given her admirable communication skills. Sarah Palin is news with a capital “N.” Her only competition at the moment is an exhausted hurricane named Gustav that just missed destroying New Orleans for the second time in three years.

So if you turn on the news all you will see is two stories about two names: Hurricane Gustav and Sarah Palin. Oh, and Sarah Palin’s 17-year old pregnant unwed daughter. There is always room on the air for a little dirt. Thanks to the Palin family for admitting to a previously undisclosed family secret, the media has found a golden nugget of a news story.

Some of the rumors follow the line that Karl Rove will be involved in asking Palin to withdraw for the sake of the Republican Party and to improve John McCain’s chances of winning. Because she was chosen to appeal to disaffected Hillary Clinton supporters (which clearly is not working) and to the Evangelical Religious Right, it is important that Palin can meet those objectives.

The Religious Right

Jerry Falwell must be rolling over in his grave right now. Evangelicals will publicly support Palin for her stand against abortion and for the teaching of Creationism in public schools. But they are also unlikely to actually vote for a presidential ticket made up of McCain (whom they already dislike) and a woman who’s teenage daughter is both pregnant and unwed. Many will either move to Obama or simply not vote as a matter of conscience.

I can only imagine what is going through the minds of Pentecostals, Evangelicals, Charismatics, Southern Baptists and conservative Methodists right now.

This is a great opportunity for Sarah Palin to go with the rumors and do the right thing by dropping out of the race early – before the media frenzy destroys McCain’s chances of winning. She could easily make a case that with her family situation (and her daughter’s pregnancy) that it makes more sense for her to go back to Alaska and resume her duties as Governor. No one would blame her for taking that position because it makes so much sense. Dragging her family through the campaign process, putting them through all of the pressures and pain of trying for national office – especially if her daughter will be giving birth in December or January – will lose her the respect that she would normally expect.

Time will tell – but this time the rumors might actually prove to have been correct.